Why is the most cost-effective plug-in hated by most plug-in advocates?

It’s simply time to get real about battery-powered potential

In the last couple of days there has been a ton of news about the Facebook IPO. It’s the Internet boom all over again. Others say that Chinese investors helped stoke the fire, as they also did in the few years preceding the mortgage crisis.

Ironically, these themes are also woven into the plug-in revolution that is currently hurting America more than it is helping.

I’m not much of an investor outside of my 401k, and I really don’t know what to make of the Facebook IPO, except that for the last year or so there have been many that have called the IPO process, minimally, scandalous. Insiders, some claim, know how to hype the process to their advantage, and then everyone else gets burned — at least goes the theory.

Oh how Americans seem to love hype, and the plug-in revolution is another sad example.

I remember being in Detroit just before the launch of the Chevy Volt concept. While GM had provided embargoed details regarding the Volt, much was still unknown, and the crew of Who Killed the Electric Car was in attendance to find out if GM really had killed the electric car or not.

Thus, electric cars were a big topic at NAIAS that year. Plug-in advocates at the Detroit show insisted that all GM had to do was sell the EV1 on the open market and the program would have been a success. LOL! I think today’s plug-in sales, built on technologies far superior to the EV1, prove that such an idea was complete BS. Complete fricken BS.

Unlike the EV1, which cost an arm and a leg per car, the Volt would be different claimed then GM Vice-Chairman Bob Lutz. In fact, Lutz originally suggested that the Volt would probably only cost a few thousand more than the car Lutz has hated since day 1, the Toyota Prius.

Suddenly, the Prius and hybrid cars no longer really mattered. And, it wasn’t long before other mainstream automakers jumped into the plug-in game — all the while selling as many gas-guzzlers as possible.

Over time, especially as cost projections started rising, I worried that the Volt and plug-ins were becoming an excuse not to to do more in the near term. I couldn’t help but wonder that since, as Lutz claimed, it would only take a fraction of one year’s marketing budget for GM to build its own Prius, why not just do so? Wouldn’t a non-plug-in Volt be the perfect complement to the Volt? Besides, even GM suggested the idea of a non-plug-in Volt in the early days.

But why? The Prius had just been leap-frogged, at least in terms of hype.

Fast forward some 5 years and Toyota has now sold more than 4 million hybrid cars. For the last few months the Prius family has been Toyota’s second best selling lineup of vehicles in the US, accounting for nearly 20 percent of all Toyota sales. Yet, according to Toyota, the Prius family — and hybrid cars –  is poised for far greater market penetration.

Sadly, with rise of plug-in hype, I have heard many claim that hybrid cars had become passe.  That even Toyota is passe, including its plug-in Prius. Unfortunately, numerous studies have continued to suggest otherwise.

The latest is a Canadian study that finds from well-to-wheel, when driving conditions are fully accounted into the equation, hybrid cars are pretty much on par with plug-in hybrids and range extended electric vehicles in terms of overall energy use and CO2 emissions. In fact, non-plug-in hybrids might even be better. Even more troublesome, they are far cheaper, particularly upfront. And cheaper means more sales and greater impact.

But what does the real world matter?

Pathetically, at least in my opinion, this type of data has now been around for several years. For instance, in recent years studies from Carnegie Melon and Oxford University, to name just a few,  have suggested the same.

But America had to leapfrog an idea like the Prius, and we had to beat the Chinese.

Deja vu?

The Chinese helping to stoke another American hype-powered bubble that benefits the rich at the expense of the poor?

Maybe that’s going too far, but it’s hard to understand just how plug-ins are really helping America. Massive subsidies are being pumped into this space to rush into a technology that many experts claim simply isn’t ready for primetime, at least not based upon the demands and expectations of mainstream consumers. So just what are we rushing towards? Hype? For example, recently the head of advanced products at Mercedes echoed what many mainstream auto execs — easily the majority –  have been claiming for years. There is NO major battery breakthough coming within the next decade.

DECADE!

Then shouldn’t we being do more in the interim? And again, at least in my opinion, that’s just what mainstream automakers have been using plug-ins to avoid, just as they did with fuel cell vehicles. It’s a sad pattern. Doing as little as possible today, while pretending that the future is just around the corner.

I mean, why can’t lithium hybrids, for example, be a good step towards such a breakthrough? You can make far more hybrids with the same amount of resources and you can make them far cheaper — while basically achieving the same savings in energy and even greater emission’s reductions compared to plug-in hybrids.

Achieve more for less? Is that really so anti-American? Why do we let hype supersede logic? It has the right political resonation?

As I’ve argued before, hybrid cars are a great way to introduce consumers to electrification. That occasional burst of EV silence is powerful, and it makes many consumers want more of it. That’s a good start. A great opening to the full benefits of pure electrification. More noteworthy, if there was a small incentive for such vehicles — much smaller than for plug-ins — cars like the Prius would become Toyota’s top-selling vehicles.

That offers real impact today.

And imagine if GM had used a fraction of one year’s marketing budget to build their own Prius, even before Toyota, according to Lutz. Would that mean 8 million hybrid sales to date between the two? Spread that across the entire mainstream auto industry and things look very different today than they do currently, in terms of fuel efficient offerings, at least I believe.

But competition is bad. Instead, regulation is the answer to everything. Please.

Instead, it might still be a decade, probably more, before the Volt and the Nissan Leaf truly find their groove. And, even then according to many studies, conventional hybrids might still dominate sales for some time for numerous reasons, such as limited recharging capabilities, etc.

Like Facebook and the Internet Bubble, plug-in hype is only good for a handful of rich people. While plug-ins will have their time and will leapfrog ICE-based hybrids eventually, it’s going to take time, significant time unfortunately. Hype simply isn’t going to change that reality, just as it didn’t for the Internet bubble, nor for Facebook. It’ll only keep America dependent upon foreign oil longer while leading to even greater CO2 emissions.

At the end of the day, it’s time for plug-ins to stop being an excuse for not doing more today. Likewise, it’s time for the government to stop enabling automakers to continue to be so complacent. With the proper incentives, we could achieve 2025 CAFE requirements many years earlier, in a way that mainstream consumers will embrace and that will be good for the country. Plus, accepting this hybrid opportunity creates a much better foundation for plug-in electrification to build upon.

The rest is just hype and BS. But that’s what sells in America these days. Enjoy the smell.

Certainly, the Toyota Prius family are the best fuel efficient cars. There’re several unique styles of the Prius now, instead of just one or two types, there are now four different Prius models to give you additional options and fit your needs. There’s as well the Nissan Leaf, that is 100% electric and entirely eliminates your requirement for fuel or diesel. Unfortunately this model as well as other electric vehicles are not meant for long-distance traveling; however there are many different hybrid options if you need a car for more than just local trips.

Few vehicles like the Chevy Volt offer remarkable mileage on a single tank of fuel by utilizing electricity and gas- the first 35 miles approximately after charging is totally gas free and uses electricity. You will find many more vehicles that are utilising hybrid technology or simply bettering fuel efficiency overall. Honda has many hybrids and gas efficient vehicles like the Honda Civic Hybrid, offering a remarkable 41 combined mpg. The elegant Honda CR-Z provides 37 mpg combined, for those needing a sporty however gas efficient vehicle.

There is additionally the elegant Ford Fusion Hybrid coming in with an also impressive 39 combined mpg. The Ford Fiesta is additionally quite a sporty compact vehicle at a low price, and has a decent 33 mpg combined, or upto 40 mpg on the highway. If you do not want much cargo space and simply want a low priced vehicle with great fuel mileage, the Smart for Two is best with and starting at $12,490 MSRP. The other good brand for gas efficiency and best price is Hyundai, offering many cars with great gas economy and options all at an affordable price. Hyundai has for several years had the best warranty in the US, which can make it even more worthwhile if you are planning on keeping your car for quite a while or more.

Regardless, there are so many different models and choices now for fuel efficient cars in 2012. It’s become a thing of the past to be restricted to just one or two brands and limited variety. Thanks to increased government fuel standards, increasingly more vehicles and trucks in general have a fuel economy of 25 mpg or even 30 mpg, however 2012 brings us a number of different vehicle choices for cars getting 35 or even more mpg. All the major brands now offer more options and choices for fuel efficient vehicles, and the trend is undoubtedly anticipated to continue.

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Any additional energy that is furnished by a hybrid system is normally used by most automakers to have a smaller gasoline engine, but not BMW. BMW made a decision to utilize the extra power produced by the electric motor to make the car go even faster instead of using it to reduce fuel consumption. A new 2011 BMW ActiveHybrid 7 has the same engine, a twin turbo direct-injection 4.4-liter V-8, as the typical BMW 750i. As opposed to the BMW 750i, the ActiveHybrid 7 features a 120-volt lithium ion power supply. The hybrid offers you improved fuel consumption than the regular 750i but provide even more horsepower. This of course provides more than BMW 525i series.

In spite of being a hybrid automobile, the ActiveHybrid 7 doesn’t drive in pure electric mode in any situation. It is just like the Integrated Motor Assist System of the Honda, where it adds boost when it is speeding up, and when it stops it lets the engine shut down. If you are in the driver’s seat, you will not even know that you are in a hybrid, but it has a blue area in the fuel gauge, which shows when the car is having electricity regenerated by its momentum. If the car stops at a traffic light, you’ll be aware that it is a hybrid, by the engine going soundless and the tach needle drops to zero. With the size of the engine, it is shocking how smooth the engine returns to life, when you take your foot off of the brake.

The idle stop set up is quite impressive if you are at a traffic light but it can’t be the same when you are stuck in stop-and-go traffic. It is great to have the engine shut down as you sit there stopped, nevertheless it becomes a nuisance when it shuts down for 5 seconds at a time, and this takes some getting used to. It also takes getting used to the amount of power, because the vehicle lunges ahead with the slightest touch of the accelerator. It may sound green calling this car a hybrid, but the added horsepower and not fuel efficiency is what this hybrid system has done.

Any time you imagine a hybrid, you think of fuel efficiency, and while the 2011 BMW ActiveHybrid 7 is more efficient that the standard BMW 7-series, it only gets around 20 miles per gallon. Although that is wonderful for a luxury sport vehicle that’s not all that much for a hybrid. We now expect we will likely discover ActiveHybrid in BMW 525i as well as various BMW leasing in the near future?

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Early numbers indicate the Prius C is hot

Prius C off to a good start, but will it drive Toyota hybrid sales much higher?

A lot of hype on Friday over the first 3 days of Toyota Prius C sales. With 1200 units sold, the Prius C topped February sale’s totals for both the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf, many pointed out. While that’s somewhat interesting, it’s not really surprising based on numerous consumer surveys.

The real benchmark is conventional Toyota Prius sales, followed by total Prius family sales.

At $19,000, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Prius C outsells the original Prius, but if most Prius buyers are simply downsizing to the cheaper Prius C, then Toyota isn’t gaining much. It’s all about new Prius buyers, new Toyota hybrid car buyers.

Obviously, the C hybrid is going to convert new buyers into the hybrid space, but how many? That’s what I’m waiting to find out.

If the C hybrid helps Prius family sales average 20,000 sales per month, that’d be a big step for the hybrid cars space. Well, at least the Toyota hybrid car space. For the rest of the industry, it’d be more of an embarrassment.

Time for US Prius production

A hybrid win for Ford as well?

If the Toyota Yaris hybrid is successful in Europe, Toyota plans to move Hybrid Synergy Drive powertrain production to Europe. As a result, the production of batteries and other hybrid components would move from Japan to Europe, a move that would bring down hybrid costs in Europe according to some Toyota execs.

Based on sales so far in 2012, US Toyota Prius hybrid sales will hit the sale’s numbers necessary to bring localized hybrid powertrain production to the US — at least based on European metrics.

Isn’t it time to bring Prius production, and lower hybrid prices, to the US?

According to Alain Uyttenhoven, vice president at Toyota Europe, it makes sense to start European HSD production if hybrid sales hit somewhere between 150,000 – 250,000 sales per year.

Last month Toyota sold more than 20,000 Prius hybrid cars, which definitely puts US Prius sales in this range. Moreover, considering the potential of the upcoming cheaper Prius C, Toyota could sell more than 250,000 Prius hybrids this year.

Furthermore, if US production reduced Toyota Prius costs, then sales have nowhere to go but higher.

And, might that not be good for Ford as well, for instance. Might not US-based suppliers then be able to service the hybrid supply needs of both Toyota and Ford, especially considering the similarities of their hybrid drives, and the fact they are working together on a hybrid pickup truck powertrain?

Regardless, with the addition of the Prius C, Prius family sales might top US Corolla sales within just the next few years. Bring hybrid costs down further with US production, and Toyota’s target of topping Camry sales starts coming into range.

Too much hype too early, despite long term potential

OMG. Did you hear? A Chevy Volt burped!

It seems like the Chevy Volt has been around for years already, yet it’s only been on the market for a little over a year, and hasn’t even achieved 10,000 total sales. Still, the Volt is in the news almost daily.

GM and fans of the Volt might claim all the Volt hoopla — much of it negative — is mostly just political shaninagans, and that all this political spin has hurt Volt sales. Hence, today’s Volt production shutdown announcement has been treated like a major news story.

But I don’t blame politicians for the media circus that the Volt has become. If you’re going to blame someone, you have to blame GM because they set up the big tent for this circus years ago.

Not that long after the movie Who killed the electric car was released and the Toyota Prius was proving itself to be more than just a marketing gimmick, GM’s reputation was taking some serious shots. Something needed to be done.

So Bob Lutz approached Jon Lauckner about a new electric car. But based on GM’s experiences with the EV1, particularly the range anxiety supposedly caused by such vehicles, Lauckner balked. Instead, he came up with the basic framework for the Chevy Volt’s powertrain — a vehicle that could function like an EV and use only electricity for the bulk of average commutes, but that wouldn’t be limited by range anxiety.

In theory and in terms of marketing, Lutz realized the Volt concept was a home run and he made it his baby. And, when the Volt debuted at the North American International Auto Show, Lutz’s hype-hope was fulfilled. The Volt was exactly the PR move GM needed at exactly the right time. Almost immediately, few cared that GM didn’t have an answer to the Toyota Prius because GM didn’t need one anymore. In one swift move GM leapfrogged Toyota and the Prius, at least perceptually.

And GM hyped the hell out of the Volt, and I helped.

But, as the Volt moved closer to production, it became more and more obvious that the Volt wasn’t really a very good Prius answer — a common topic on this blog for years — which is part of the reason GM concurrently developed the Chevy Cruze. But the Volt hype — the automotive revolution — didn’t ebb, it just flowed ever greater.

Remember the 230 campaign?

The Volt was the second coming of the car. That was the perception, a perception that GM loved to promote and perpetuate.

The sad thing, however, was that GM knew — has always known — that the Volt would only be a niche car for some time, yet they promised, promised, and promised. To a large extent, they began to build their image around the Volt, or at least the perception of the Volt.

Then bankruptcy hit.

We’ll never know how much bankruptcy hurt the potential of short term Volt sales, but I think that angle has been over-played, at least to some extent. For instance, I’d bet most potential Volt buyers aren’t Republicans, so Republican hate can’t be that much of a problem for Volt sales if Democrats are key buyers.

The Volt’s problem is that it’s too expensive for what it offers. A similarly sized and styled Cruze is half the price, and the Cruze’s fuel economy isn’t cut in half during winter. On the highway, the Cruze offers even better fuel economy than the Volt. Moreover, the Volt and suggestions of 230 mpge were simply ridiculous. While early adopters will seek to hypermile and prove these numbers plausible, the data suggests that mainstream users will only average maybe 60 mpge. The Prius can almost do that without having to charge, at half the price, and without a serious hit in fuel economy on long trips.

Sure the Volt can use electricity, and that is a great competitive advantage, but when a huge amount of electricity is still coal-powered — a source dirtier than even Canadian tar sands according to some studies — what’s really being gained?

I know some will say reduced foreign oil dependence, and they’re right. For those committed to ending their personal foreign oil dependence, the Volt does offer more than the Prius, but at a cost. Furthermore, from a societal or national perspective, the Volt comes up seriously short compared to the Prius. Last month, for instance, the Prius sold 22,000 units, the Volt just 1,000. Consequently, the Prius is having far greater impact on overall foreign oil dependence compared to the Volt, and with the cheaper Prius C and the plug-in Prius on the way, those Prius sales are only going to go higher.

In fact, that’s exactly why I’ve argued for years now that the Volt can’t be an excuse not to serve up a real apples to apples Prius competitor. GM needs both a legit Prius contender, and the Volt. In the interim, I would even argue a Prius competitor was more important, but GM was most focused on image and perception and long term potential.

Today, however, hype can’t cover up Volt sales, or the lack thereof. And when GM shuts down Volt production for a month and a half, that early Volt hype is easy to turn against GM. Anyway you slice it, GM over-promised and under-delivered the Volt.

Nevertheless, the Volt is still a great idea. In the long run, it might actually live up to the hype, but when you try to fight a real product that makes sense today with concepts and hype, you’re bound to eventually get burned, and GM simply over-hyped the Volt far too early.

Toyota Camry Hybrid

These awesome hybrid vehicles possess a fantastic fuel economy of 39 miles per gallon on the highway. This conserve the consumer a nice chunk of funds. The newest Camry hybrid model is environmentally friendly also, by letting off 70 percent fewer emissions that usually cause smog. When assessing this to other autos, it is relatively great although more modern autos are producing less smog forming emissions.

The Camry hybrid is available in two models, the LE as well as the XLE. The first comes along with a smart key system that allows a driver start the auto by the touch of a button. The other incorporates an HDD navigation system consequently there is not any waste of time or fuel while looking for a destination.

Toyota Highlander Hybrid

This is one amongst the larger Toyota hybrids out there. It is versatile and gives a driver the peacefulness that comes with owning an environmentally friendly car without giving up the convenience of a roomy vehicle. Although it is very large, it still manages to get 28 miles per gallon on the highway. The engine makes 270 horsepower of performance.

The Highlander hybrid also has two versions. The ordinary variety has synergy drive and is slightly cheaper than the Hybrid Limited. The Limited is equipped with a wood grain style trim and a ten way power driver’s seat. For more comfort, this model has three zoned climate control that allows every passenger to enjoy the level of air conditioning that meets their likings.

The Toyota Prius

The Prius hybrid comes in four different models. This innovative car is now in its 3rd generation. It is the very first true hybrid vehicle. It gets approximately 50 miles per gallon when combining electricity and gasoline.

Prius Two — The most inexpensive of the four comes along with a smart key system as well as a touch tracer display.

Prius Three — Its advanced audio system comes along with Bluetooth and XM radio. Customers can also get a solar roof and a voice activated navigation platform.

Prius Four — This is a boost from the other three models. It is a mixture of all of the hybrid innovations together with a stylish, leather interior and steering wheel.

Prius Five — One of the most advanced hybrid technology that comes with LED headlamps and 17 inch alloy rims.

The world has just been made aware of the newest and most modern member of the Prius family. The Prius Plug-In gets an astonisng 87 miles per gallon using electricity and 49 miles per gallon using combined sources of power. Both the standard and higher versions have many of the advanced capabilities and enhancements from other Toyota hybrid vehicles.

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Lately, though, a lot of auto manufacturers have been making hybrid SUVs as an alternative to the gas-guzzling typical SUVs that originally dominated the market. To a degree, this shift toward the hybrid SUV was in response to decreasing large SUV and truck sales toward the end of the first decade of the 2000s; the failing economy and rising gas prices made these kinds of vehicles too costly to drive for many American families.

To combat this trend, manufacturers started production on more efficient SUVs. In 2004, the first hybrid SUV (the Ford Escape) hit the market, as were the first hybrid trucks (the Chevy Silverado and also Dodge Ram). The guiding principles behind hybrids are to get the highest gas mileage possible and to have the smallest environmental impact by fuel efficiency and low pollutants.

By now, manufacturers have more or less mastered the ability to create vehicles with greater efficiency while maintaining the power and also performance of the old gas-guzzling SUVs. Hybrid SUVs work by merging an electric motor with the regular internal combustion engine. The electric motor runs off a big battery that is recharged whenever the car coasts or brakes. The electric motor is in charge of powering the vehicle during stop-and-start travel and also acceleration to highway speeds.

The electric motor also powers accessories that would typically run off gasoline, like the A/C compressor. The gas engine is used primarily for increased acceleration and higher speeds. The switch from electricity to gas is controlled by a sophisticated computer. The advantages of purchasing one of a hybrid SUV are many. For one, there are various tax incentives, which include a federal tax incentive and state incentives that may vary from state to state.

As well, drivers will be comforted by the knowledge that they are driving in a lot more “green” vehicle, aiding to lessen carbon emissions that cause climate issues. In terms of toxic chemicals, hybrids are up to 97% lower emitters as opposed to standard cars, and half as bad in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. Because of the hybrid nature of the car, mileage is a lot better. In the city, where stop-and-start driving and low speeds lead to more substantial reliance on the battery, hybrids get drastically better mileage.

On the highway, wherein the vehicle leans more heavily on the gas tank, mileage is more or less 10% better. There are many incidental benefits that may interest the potential car buyer as well: the driving experience is no different – the car takes care of shifting between gas and electricity; commutes are reduced, because hybrids are often allowed in HOV lanes; the hybrid is a politically-correct talking point in social scenarios; and the novelty of owning one of the coolest ‘gadgets’.

There are also disadvantages to hybrid SUVs, but they are few. For example, registration fees may be higher. Also, the vehicles are more costly in terms of the initial price tag. The complexity of the powertrain increases the points at which a failure may take place, and increases repair costs. With regards to repairs, parts may be more difficult to obtain and more expensive also. In general though, a hybrid is a money- and environment-saver over time.

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The most recognized motive to buy a hybrid car is to save on the price of gas. Should you currently contain a car that delivers 25 miles to the gallon and you are driving 1,500 miles a month, and gas prices are right now at $4 per gallon, you’re spending $240 a month on gas. Conversely, you would save $140 per month off that sum if you were driving a hybrid car that got 60 miles to the gallon instead. The annual savings are going to be about $1680. The average motorist keeps a hybrid vehicle for six years and can easily expect to save in the neighborhood of $10,000 in gasoline costs alone. These results are modeled on today’s gas prices. It is realistic to expect that the price of gas will hit more than $5 before we know it. And that basically means you will end up saving even more money in the long run. That by itself is an excellent reason to swap to a hybrid.

Together with paying less for fuel, hybrid vehicles make the perfect choice because they are kinder to the environment. When excessive amounts of carbon dioxide are given off, global warming can take place. And since this type of hybrid vehicle expends less fuel, less carbon dioxide is also being created by using the vehicle. Also when increasing numbers of people begin choosing these types of vehicles, less fuel will need to be produced which also means that the big oil companies will not need to collect as much oil to process into fuel.

For an example, I am sure you already know of the Toyota Prius. This vehicle can lessen the quantity of wastes that are released through the tailpipe by as much as 90%. It also gets rid of roughly half of the greenhouse gas created in the driving process. This is truly a massive benefit for our fragile environment.

Simply speaking, the revolutionary hybrid cars can save you a small fortune on fuel costs and can also help protect our environment. So, the next time you’re in the market for a car, grab an informed look at a hybrid vehicle. This time next year and you’ll know it was a great decision.

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